Economic Consequences of Proposed Pandemic-Related Cutbacks in MTA Transportation Services and Capital Spending

Since March 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic and policies designed to contain it have had a devastating impact of the economy of New York City and the twelve-county region served by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA). Among other effects, the pandemic and the associated economic disruption have led to a sharp decline in MTA ridership and revenues. When combined with higher COVID-related costs (for distribution of personal protective equipment and disinfection of all subway and rail cars and buses) these revenue losses have plunged the MTA into the most severe financial crisis in the agency’s history. The MTA has said that without $12 billion in new federal aid, the MTA will have to reduce subway and bus service by up to 40 percent in 2021, and commuter rail service by up to 50 percent. The agency will also need to sharply reduce planned capital spending, including major system improvements included in its capital plan for 2020-2024. This report explores the potential first-year impacts of the cutbacks in operations and capital spending now being considered by the MTA on the economy of New York City and the twelve county MTA region. It assesses four ways in which these cutbacks could affect the City’s and the region’s economy: (1) by resulting in sharp reductions in MTA employment and operations;(2) by requiring deferral or elimination of billions of dollars in currently planned capital spending;(3) by effectively limiting peak-period capacity, increasing riders’ travel times and reducing the reliability of transit services;and (4) by reducing New York’s competitiveness as a place to live, work, visit, learn, and do business. The report also touches on why federal financial assistance may for the next few years be the only realistic alternative to the cutbacks in regional transit investment and services that the MTA is now facing.

Transportation During Coronavirus in New York City

The COVID-19 pandemic and the shutdown of non-essential business transformed mobility in, through and around New York City. This report provides a detailed analysis of the way in which the transportation systems in New York City and the surrounding region were affected by the pandemic and curtailed economic activity through May 31, 2020. Sections include: Trends in transportation: essential travel, trends in New York City, patterns of walking and micromobility, travel to New York City, and travel impact on the central business district;How New Yorkers adapted: essential workers, food and beverage delivery services, other creative solutions;Looking forward: challenges for public transit, returning demand;and Recommendations. Findings include: (1) Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, New York City Transit carried 5.5 million subway riders on a typical weekday, or 2.5 times the total ridership of all other U.S. subway systems combined. On April 12th, 2020, subway ridership had dropped 96% to 213,424, its lowest point during the pandemic, and likely the lowest number in 100 years. (2) From the outset of the pandemic, essential workers, an estimated 25% of NYC’s workforce, depended on subways and personal vehicles, lacking sufficient access to rapid transit and micromobility options in their neighborhoods. On a normal day, essential workers account for 38% of transit commuters. (3) As vehicular trips on New York City streets fell by 84%, traffic speeds rose 27%. (4) Tourism from across the nation and globe declined precipitously as air travel was cut sharply: passenger counts across LaGuardia, Newark, and John F. Kennedy airports fell 98.4% below 2019 levels.

Public transportation and transmission of viral respiratory disease: Evidence from influenza deaths in 121 cities in the United States.

One important concern around the spread of respiratory infectious diseases has been the contribution of public transportation, a space where people are in close contact with one another and with high-use surfaces. While disease clearly spreads along transportation routes, there is limited evidence about whether public transportation use itself is associated with the overall prevalence of contagious respiratory illnesses at the local level. We examine the extent of the association between public transportation and influenza mortality, a proxy for disease prevalence, using city-level data on influenza and pneumonia mortality and public transit use from 121 large cities in the United States (US) between 2006 and 2015. We find no evidence of a positive relationship between city-level transit ridership and influenza/pneumonia mortality rates, suggesting that population level rates of transit use are not a singularly important factor in the transmission of influenza.